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Development of output in the goods-producing sector in May 2016

2016-07-07 08:46:20

According to the Federal Statistical Office [1], output in the goods-producing sector was 1.3% lower in price-, calendar- and seasonally adjusted terms [2] in May than in the previous month. There was a somewhat greater decrease in industrial output (-1.8%). In particular, there was a drop in the manufacture of capital goods (-3.9%). In the construction sector, seasonally adjusted production was down on the preceding month (-0.9%).

Industrial output was weak in the middle of the second quarter. The above-average number of "bridging days" between public holidays and weekends contributed to this. The temporary losses of output caused by this are not caught by the seasonal adjustment. But the two and three-month comparisons for May also suggest that industrial output was down slightly (-0.4% and -0.5%). Seasonally adjusted output in the construction sector was unable to reach the high production level achieved due to the mild weather in the first quarter.

The development in new industrial orders is sluggish at present. However, the mood in industry has brightened again somewhat in recent months. Following a rather weaker development in the second quarter, industrial output is therefore likely to continue its moderate upward trend. The good situation in the construction sector is still masked at present by weather-related shifts in production.

[1] Press release by the Federal Statistical Office of 7 July 2016. [2] Preliminary data; Census X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method.

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